Swine flu "more contagious" than normal
Tuesday May 12th, 2009
Some alarming assessments of the new swine flu virus were made yesterday as it continued to spread around the world.
The World Health Organisation warned it is "more contagious" than normal winter flu.
Up to one third of people exposed to infected patients contract the virus, the WHO warned, compared with an infection rate of five to 15 per cent with normal flu.
WHO said that now swine flu is circulating in the world's southern hemisphere, further changes could take place - especially if it came into contact with bird flu.
A spokesman said: "Scientists are concerned about possible changes that could take place as the virus spreads to the southern hemisphere and encounters currently circulating human viruses as the normal influenza season in that hemisphere begins.
"The fact that the H5N1 avian influenza virus is firmly established in poultry in some parts of the world is another cause for concern. No one can predict how the H5N1 virus will behave under the pressure of a pandemic. At present, H5N1 is an animal virus that does not spread easily to humans and only very rarely transmits directly from one person to another."
Similar conclusions were reported in scientific analysis by British experts, reported by the journal Science.
The scientists from Imperial College, London, said swine flu was proving as lethal in Mexico as a 1957 pandemic - with deaths of four in every 1,000 infected people.
They said each infected person would pass the disease on to an average of 1.2 to 1.6 people.
Researcher Professor Neil Ferguson said the new virus did not seem as deadly as the 1918 flu virus.
He said: "So far, it has been following a very similar pattern to the flu pandemic in 1957, in terms of the proportion of people who are becoming infected and the percentage of potentially fatal cases that we are seeing.
"What we're seeing is not the same as seasonal flu and there is still cause for concern - we would expect this pandemic to at least double the burden on our healthcare systems."
* The global tally of confirmed cases stood at 4,694 in 30 countries last night. The USA reported its third death. Further cases were reported in South America including three in Colombia.
In Britain, an extra ten cases were confirmed yesterday bringing the national total to 65 with another 336 people under investigation.
Pandemic Potential of a Novel Strain of Influenza A (H1N1): Early Findings" Science, 11 May 2009
Tags: Flu & Viruses | World Health | North America | Travel | UK News
Printer friendly page