The majority of women diagnosed with breast cancer in England can expect to become long term cancer survivors, according to the findings of a major study reported today.
Mortality from early invasive breast cancer has fallen in the past few decades, but details of the mortality risk for different patient groups has been unclear.
Professor Carolyn Taylor, Professor of Oncology of the University of Oxford, UK, and colleagues set out to investigate using figures from 512,447 women in an ongoing study including details from the National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service.
Participants all had early invasive breast cancer usually involving only breast tissue. They were diagnosed and treated from 1993 to 2015 and followed until the end of 2020.
Overall, mortality was highest in the first five years after diagnosis, then declined over time.
The five year mortality risk fell from 14.4% for those diagnosed in 1993 to 1999, 4.9% for those diagnosed in 2010 to 2015. It was seen to drop in every patient group.
In the more recent group, five year breast cancer mortality risk “varied substantially between women with different characteristics”, report the team in BMJ today.
These characteristics included age, if the cancer was found via screening, if it had certain receptors, tumour cancer size, grade and number of lymph nodes involved.
These figures “may be used to estimate breast cancer mortality risks for patients today”, the authors write.
Professor Taylor said: “Our study is good news for the overwhelming majority of women diagnosed with early breast cancer today because their prognosis has improved so much. Their risk of dying from their breast cancer in the first 5 years after diagnosis is now 5%.
“Our study shows that prognosis after a diagnosis of early breast cancer varies widely, but patients and clinicians can use these results to predict accurate prognosis moving forward.”
Michelle Mitchell of Cancer Research UK commented: “Receiving any cancer diagnosis is an extremely worrying time, but this study can give patients a more accurate prognosis and offer reassurance for many women.”
Taylor, C. et al. Breast cancer mortality in 500 000 women with early invasive breast cancer in England, 1993-2015: population based observational cohort study. BMJ 14 June 2023 doi: 10.1136/bmj-2022-074684
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