More than five million children globally have lost a parent or caregiver due to Covid-19, it is estimated today.
A new modelling study published in The Lancet Child & Adolescent Health estimates the numbers of children affected nearly doubled from 1 May 2021 to 31 October 2021, compared with the numbers affected in the first 14 months of the pandemic, 1 March 2020 to 30 April 2021.
Two out of three children orphaned from Covid-19 were aged 10 to 17 years, with three out of four children worldwide experiencing the death of their father.
The authors warn that children who lose a caregiver have an increased risk of poverty, exploitation and sexual violence or abuse, HIV infection, mental health challenges and severe distress, and in some contexts, increased vulnerability to gang involvement and violent extremism.
They call for evidence-based programmes for those children and young people to be incorporated into pandemic response efforts.
Lead author Dr Susan Hillis said: “We estimate that for every person reported to have died as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, one child is left orphaned or loses a caregiver. That is the equivalent of one child every six seconds facing a heightened risk of lifelong adversity unless given appropriate support in time.
“Thus, support for orphaned children must be immediately integrated into every national Covid-19 response plan. Such support should focus on three core components: preventing caregiver death through equitable Covid-19 vaccine coverage, containment, and treatment; preparing families that are safe and nurturing to support affected children (such as through kinship care, foster care, and adoption); and protecting children using evidence-based strategies to reduce risks of poverty, childhood adversity, and violence.
“These strategies will help save lives now and put the programmatic and financial infrastructure in place on a global scale to secure a better future for children and families around the world.”
Dr Juliette Unwin, lead author from Imperial College London, UK, said the number of orphans it modelled is likely to be an under-estimate because the World Health Organization (WHO) believes the accurate data for Covid-19 deaths in Africa are limited and the real estimates are likely to be 10 times.
“Consequently, these under-reported deaths mean that Covid-19-related orphanhood and caregiver loss is also drastically underestimated,” she said.
“Real-time updated data suggests the true totals reached 6.7 million children as of January 2022. While our current study looked at estimates through October 2021, the pandemic is still raging worldwide, which means Covid-19 related orphanhood will also continue to surge.”
For the 20-month study period, which analysed 20 countries globally, the team estimates a minimum of 3,367,000 children experienced the loss of a parent, while a further 1,833,300 children were affected by the death of a grandparent or older adult caregiver living in their own home.
The number of children affected by the death of a caregiver due to Covid-19 exceeded the number of reported Covid-19 deaths at 5.2 million children compared to 5 million Covid-19 deaths.
Senior author Prof Lorraine Sherr, of University College London, said: “It took 10 years for five million children to be orphaned by HIV/AIDS, whereas the same number of children have been orphaned by Covid-19 in just two years.
“These figures do not account for the latest wave of the omicron Covid-19 variant, which may push the true toll even higher. We need to act swiftly to identify the children behind these numbers, so they can be given the support they need to thrive.”
The number of children affected ranged from 2,400 in Germany to more than 1.9 million in India. Calculations of estimated orphanhood cases per capita found the highest rates in Peru and South Africa, with eight and seven children respectively out of every 1000 being affected.
Adolescents aged 10-17 years accounted for 63.6% (2,146,700) of orphaned children, while youngsters aged five to nine years accounted for 21.8% (736,800) cases. Children up to the age of four represented 14.6% (491,300) of cases.
The authors say there are limitations in their study because it is a mathematical model, with analysis based on the best available data, even though many countries do not have robust reporting systems for deaths or fertility.
However, they add that by using a stable COVID-19 infection fatality ratio, it is unlikely this limitation substantially biased their results.
Unwin HJT, Hillis S, Cluver L et al. Global, regional, and national minimum estimates of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and caregiver death, by age and family circumstance up to Oct 31, 2021: an updated modelling study. Lancet 25 February 2022
Leave a Reply