Sweden, among European countries, took a deliberately relaxed approach to the COVID-19 lockdown – but this has failed to deliver herd immunity, according to an analysis published today.
Rather than imposing a hard lockdown in March, the authorities in Sweden gave the population individual responsibility for limiting infection, alongside the goal of herd immunity.
The research published in the Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine today (12 August) suggest that this policy has so far failed to lead to widespread immunity.
Lead author, Professor David Goldsmith, and colleagues report on the results of recent antibody testing and show that Sweden has experienced raised rates of infection and death, while still only having a prevalence figure of around 15%.
They warn that this “may have serious implications for Scandinavia and beyond.”
“It is clear that not only are the rates of viral infection, hospitalisation and mortality (per million population) much higher than those seen in neighbouring Scandinavian countries, but also that the time-course of the epidemic in Sweden is different, with continued persistence of higher infection and mortality well beyond the few critical weeks period seen in Denmark, Finland and Norway,” said Professor Goldsmith.
He added that: “We in the UK would do well to remember we nearly trod the same path as Sweden, as herd immunity was often discussed here in early March. Right now, despite strict (but tardy) lock-down in the UK, and the more measured Swedish response, both countries have seen high seven-day averaged COVID-19 death rates compared to other Scandinavian and European countries.”
Worlowski, E. J. and Goldsmith, D. J. A. Four months into the COVID-19 pandemic, Sweden’s prized herd immunity is nowhere in sight. Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine 12 August 2020; doi: 10.1177/0141076820945282
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0141076820945282
Leave a Reply