Elderly people in Europe and the East Mediterranean are especially vulnerable to extremes of heat brought on by climate change, a report has warned.
The 2018 report of The Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change, which draws on the analysis of 27 academic institutions, the UN, and intergovernmental agencies, has found that populations are being exposed to unacceptably high health risks.
It warns that although there was a mean global temperature increase of 0.3°C between 1986 and 2017, the average temperature increase people were exposed to was more than double this at 0.8°C.
Professor Hilary Graham, of the University of York, England, said: “Trends in the impacts of climate change, exposures and vulnerabilities show unacceptably high risk for health now and in the future.
“The lack of progress in reducing emissions and building adaptive capacity threatens lives and health systems and must be addressed to avoid disruption to core public health infrastructure and overwhelming health services.”
The report examines 41 separate indicators across a range of themes and among the key points are that 157 million more vulnerable people were subjected to a heatwave last year than in 2000, and 18 million more than in 2016.
It also established that 153 billion hours of work were lost in 2017 due to extreme heat as a result of climate change. In China alone, 21 billion hours were lost – the equivalent of a year’s work for 1.4% of their working population – while in India, it was 75 billion hours lost, equivalent to 7% of their total working population.
The report also warns that rising ambient temperatures are placing vulnerable populations at increased risks across all regions of the world. Europe and the East Mediterranean are particularly at risk, most likely due to ageing populations living in cities, with 42% and 43% of over 65s vulnerable to heat exposure. This is significantly higher than Africa (38%) and southeast Asia (34%).
Dr Karyn Morrissey, of the University of Exeter Medical School, whose work focused on how city leaders perceive the extent of the problems of climate change, said: “Extreme weather of any kind causes a double-whammy effect when it comes to health services.
“Events like extreme high temperatures mean both higher casualty and death rates and can cause logistical problems for the buildings, services and people who provide healthcare. We’re not immune to the problem in this country – Europe and the UK are waking up to the extent of the issue, and we now need robust action and planning, before it’s too late.”
Other findings of the report include: for the first time, deaths from air pollution by source attribution, with coal accounting for approximately 16% globally; a new indicator mapping extremes of precipitation that identifies South America and southeast Asia among the regions most exposed to flood and drought and, on food security, the report reveals 30 countries are experiencing downward trends in crop yields, reversing a decade-long trend that had previously seen global improvement.
The report authors also warn that small changes in temperature and rainfall can result in large changes in the transmission of infectious diseases that are spread via water and mosquitoes.
In 2016, global vectorial capacity for the transmission of the dengue fever virus was the highest on record – rising by 9.1% above the 1950s baseline for the Aedes aegypti mosquito and by 11.1% for Aedes albopictus.
In addition, the cholera bacteria increased by 24% in the Baltic region’s coastline between the 1980s and 2010s, while the vectorial capacity of malaria increased by 27.6% in the highlands of sub-Saharan Africa between the 1950s baseline and 2016.
Watts N, Amann M, Arnell N et al. The 2018 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: shaping the health of nations for centuries to come. Lancet 29 November 2018
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