Cervical cancer may cease to kill young women within 20 years – but will remain a problem for older women because of complacency about screening, according to a new analysis.
Researchers found that death rates among women over the age of 50 will more than double by 2040 if rates of those attending screening continue to decline.
The study by a team at Queen Mary, University of London, set out to explore the impact of the introduction of the HPV vaccine by 2040.
The researchers conclude that incidence of the disease among women aged between 25 and 44 will reduce by 53%.
But they warn that a reduction in women attending screening for cervical cancer will contribute to increased incidence among older women.
This could lead to mortality from the disease doubling among women over the age of 60 – together with a 71% increase in incidence, according to the study published in The Lancet Public Health.
Robert Music, of Jo’s Cervical Cancer Trust, which commissioned the study, said: “We are on the path to eradicating cervical cancer among young women which is extraordinary. However, we are faced with an immediate challenge among women who will be over 50 in 2040.
“This research should serve as a wake-up call and the need for action. Continued declining cervical screening attendance will cost lives at all ages and must not happen.”
Researcher Dr Alejandra Castanon said: “This study shows how the age-specific incidence of cervical cancer will change over the next 20 years. Women currently aged between 25 and 40 will remain at high risk of cervical cancer throughout their lives, whilst women younger than 25 will see their risk decrease by around 50%.
“This has implications for the way we invest in and target screening.”
Prediction of cervical cancer incidence in England, UK, up to 2040, under four scenarios: a modelling study. Lancet Public Health 18 December 2017; doi:10.1016/S2468-2667(17)30222-0 [abstract]
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