A quarter of women and one in six men across Europe are likely to have physical disabilities that severely impact their daily lives by 2047, according to analysis published today.
While the proportions of those with a physical disability are unlikely to change significantly, the absolute numbers will rise rapidly as European populations age, says the research in BMJ Open. This will have implications for supported care and the training of healthcare professionals.
The findings are based on the EU Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (SILC) survey data on 26 high and middle income European countries, which was collected annually between 2008 and 2014, and United Nations sex specific life expectancy tables and population projections from 2015 to 2050.
The researchers, who focused on those aged 55 and over, combined the data to calculate healthy life years by sex, age, and country, to predict the proportion of older people whose daily lives would be severely restricted because of long-term health issues.
They said that their findings show that more women than men reported severe limitations in physical capacity due to long-term health issues – confirming results from previous studies.
They also found that by 2047 21% women and just under 17% men aged 65 and over will have a long-term health problem that will severely restrict activities of daily living.
The proportion of the unhealthy population was very similar across the 26 countries, once cultural differences had been accounted for. This is expected to remain fairly constant over time, even though life expectancy is set to increase, the researchers say.
The study was led by Dr Daniela Weber, of the Wittgenstein Centre International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
Scherbov S, Weber D. Future trends in the prevalence of severe activity limitations among older adults in Europe: a cross national population study using EU-SILC. BMJ Open. October 2017. doi 10.1136/bmjopen-2017-017654 [abstract]
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