More than 1.2 million people in England and Wales will be living with dementia by 2040 – an increase of 57% from 2016, according to an analysis published today.
Research carried out by University College London and the University of Liverpool says that although the number of newly diagnosed cases of dementia is falling, the number of people with the condition will grow because of increased life expectancy and a decline in deaths from other causes.
The study, published in The BMJ, aims to predict the future burden of dementia and did so by developing a mathematical model (IMPACT – Better Ageing Model), which takes account of disease trends and death rates alongside the effects of increasing life expectancy.
Using data from 18,000 men and women from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) – a study that began in 2002 to track the health of a representative sample of the population in England aged 50 and over – the research team randomly selected participants into six waves from 2002 to 2013.
At each wave, tests were carried out to assess memory, verbal fluency and numeracy function, and basic activities of daily living, and dementia was identified, complemented by interviews with carers, or via doctor diagnosis.
The researchers found the rate of dementia incidence fell 2.7% per year between 2002 and 2013. However, the model shows that overall prevalence of dementia will increase substantially.
Dr Sara Ahmadi-Abhari, lead author from University College London, said: “The risk of developing dementia at any given age is going down over time, shifting dementia to later years in life.
“This decline is mainly because of improvements in healthcare and adopting healthier lifestyles. Our estimate of 1.2 million people with dementia by 2040 is based on the assumption that the decline in risk of developing dementia continues to the future. If public health efforts fail and the risk of developing dementia does not continue to decline, the growth in numbers of people living with dementia will be much larger, reaching 1.9 million by 2040.”
Senior investigator Professor Eric Brunner said the results could have significant policy implications in terms of care needs and public spending.
Ahmadi-Abhari S, Guzman-Castillo M, Bandosz P et al. Temporal trend in dementia incidence since 2002 and projections for prevalence in England and Wales to 2040: modelling study. The BMJ 6 July 2017; doi:10.1136/bmj.j2856 [abstract]
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