The world will struggle to contain the spread of the Zika virus – but the epidemic will burn itself out after three years, according to British experts.
This mean that vaccines are unlikely to be ready in time to be of significant benefit, according to the analysis by Professor Neil Ferguson, of Imperial College, London.
Professor Ferguson published his analysis in Science last night.
He says the course of the virus will be determined by herd immunity – meaning that within three years there will be enough survivors of illness to prevent its spread.
He warns that efforts to slow transmission could be counter-productive – as it could allow the outbreak to continue for longer.
Professor Ferguson said: "If our projections are correct, cases will have dropped substantially by the end of next year, if not sooner. This means by the time we have vaccines ready to be tested, there may not be enough cases of Zika in the community to test if the vaccine works."
He added: "One research priority is to fully understand the extent of Zika transmission, and what proportion of people in Latin America – and across the globe have been infected. To do this we need to assess past exposure to Zika by testing blood from representative samples of at-risk populations for the presence of antibodies to the virus. We and other groups are working on such studies at the moment.
"There are currently more questions surrounding Zika than answers."
But the World Federation of Neurology welcomed indications that there was no transmission of the virus in North America and Europe.
Professor John England, who chairs the federation’s working group on the subject, said: “We need continued close-knit monitoring to curb the spread of the infection to the greatest possible extent.
"All countries should take measures to ensure that imported Zika infections can be detected as quickly as possible. In this context, we welcome the trend in many countries toward establishing a duty to report detected cases."
Science 14 July 2016
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