The death rate from the Ebola virus in west Africa may be much higher than previously thought – with more than two thirds of victims dying, researchers warn today.
Official casualty figures have suggested that about 50% of the infected fail to survive – but the latest study says it may be 71%.
As things stand, the numbers of those infected with Ebola will continue to climb exponentially, say experts from the World Health Organisation (WHO) and Imperial College, London, UK. More than 20,000 people could be infected by early November.
Dr Christopher Dye, from WHO, has reviewed the figures since the beginning of the outbreak which can be traced back to December 2013, although the World Health Organisation was not notified until March this year.
In total, 4,507 cases have been reported to the WHO.
The new report shows there is no significant difference among the different countries in the total numbers of male and female case patients. Dr Dye says: "There may be differences in some communities, but when we actually looked at all the data combined, we saw it was really almost split 50-50."
In terms of fatalities, he explains the situation is complicated by "incomplete information on the clinical outcomes of many cases, both detected and undetected".
However, it appears that by 14 September 71% of patients may have died.
This mortality rate seemed to be consistent in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. The rate was lower among patients treated in hospital.
Full details were reported yesterday (23 September) in the New England Journal of Medicine.
"We infer that the present epidemic is exceptionally large, not primarily because of biologic characteristics of the virus, but in part because of the attributes of the affected populations, the condition of the health systems, and because control efforts have been insufficient to halt the spread of infection," concludes Dr Dye.
Fellow researcher Professor Christl Donnelly, of Imperial College, London, UK, said: “The large intermixing population has facilitated the spread of infection, but a large outbreak was not inevitable. In Nigeria, for example, where health systems are stronger, the number of cases has so far been limited, despite the introduction of infection into the large cities of Lagos and Port Harcourt.“
WHO Ebola Response Team. Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa – The First 9 Months of the Epidemic and Forward Projections. New England Journal of Medicine 23 September 2014 doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa1411100
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