The number of people with cancer is set to soar by more than 90 per cent in some of the poorest countries in the world within two decades, it is claimed today.
According to a study by Dr Freddie Bray, of the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) in Lyon, France, the global cancer burden will rise more than 75 per cent by 2030, but poorest countries are projected to experience the heaviest burden at more than 90 per cent.
The research published in the Lancet Oncology is the first to examine how the current and future patterns of incidence and mortality of different types of cancer vary between countries with different levels of development, as measured by their Human Development Index (HDI).
Although incidence rates and the burden of some types of cancer, such as cervical cancer and stomach cancer, are on the decline in some countries, the reduction is likely to be offset by a substantial increase in the types of cancer more associated with a so-called "Westernised" lifestyle, including breast, prostate and colorectal cancer.
“Cancer is already the leading cause of death in many high-income countries and is set to become a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the next decades in every region of the world,” said Dr Bray.
“This study serves as an important reference point in drawing attention to the need for global action to reduce the increasing burden of cancer.”
The study used data from GLOBOCAN, a database compiled by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) that has estimates of cancer incidence and mortality in 2008 in 184 countries worldwide.
The team looked at patterns of the most common types of cancer and how they varied according to four levels of human development and projected those findings to ascertain how the cancer burden is likely to change by 2030.
It took into consideration predicted changes in population size and ageing, as well as changing trends in incidence rates of six of the most common types of cancer in countries with medium, high and very high levels of human development.
Countries with a low development index, particularly countries in sub-Saharan Africa, have a high incidence of cancers associated with infection, particularly cervical cancer, while countries with a higher HDI, including the UK, Australia, Russia, and Brazil, experience more cancers that are associated with smoking, reproductive risk factors, obesity and diet.
The authors say that although increasing living standards in less developed countries may lead to a decrease in some infection-related cancers, there may be a surge in the types of cancer that affect mainly better-developed countries.
Demographic changes and changing trends in cancer incidence rates could lead to a large increase in cancer cases in lower or medium development countries, with medium countries, such as South Africa, China, and India, predicted to experience an increase of 78 per cent in the number of cancer cases by 2030, and low HDI countries predicted to undergo a 93 per cent increase over the same period.
Dr Christopher Wild, IARC director said: “This study reveals the dynamic nature of cancer patterns in a given region of the world over time.
“Countries must take account of the specific challenges they will face and prioritise targeted interventions to combat the projected increases in cancer burden via effective primary prevention strategies, early detection, and effective treatment programmes.”
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