Britain will have 11 million more obese adults within 20 years if present trends continue – meaning the problem would affect nearly half the population, researchers have warned.
In the USA the numbers could jump by 65 million.
The analysis, in The Lancet, suggests the UK would have to deal with an extra 668,000 cases of diabetes, 461,000 extra cases of heart disease and 130,000 additional cases of cancer. A total of 26 million people would be classed as obese.
Researcher Professor Klim McPherson, of New College, Oxford University, says an average weight reduction of one per cent could prevent at least a quarter of these extra cases.
* A second report in the same journal challenges the conventional assumption that a "crash diet" cutting 500 calories a day could enable people to lose a pound a week.
Researcher Dr Kevin Hall, of the US National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, Bethesda, Maryland, USA, says it would be better to aim to reduce 100 calories a day – shedding ten pounds over three years.
Gathering together evidence about the success of diets and using mathematical analysis, the researchers argue that human metabolism makes crash diets unlikely to be successful as proponents say.
The British Heart Foundation said the government could do more to tackle obesity.
Associate medical director Dr Mike Knapton said the analysis was "deeply worrying".
He said: "It’s not just the UK, obesity is now a global pandemic fuelling diseases such as heart disease, diabetes and cancer. If we fail to tackle it now we’ll leave a legacy of people living poor quality lives and dying young.
"What we have to remember is that obesity is a ‘normal response’ to our environment. Culturally, we’re reliant on cars, our jobs and leisure activities are increasingly sedentary and we are faced with an abundance of easily available high-energy foods.
“Yet while we all have a role to play in tackling this problem, this research recognises that national governments are the most significant players – ahead of individuals, industry and civil society."
Leave a Reply