A new method has been developed to give accurate predictions of the success of in-vitro fertilisation, British researchers reported last night.
The model was created by Dr Scott Nelson from the Glasgow University, UK, and Dr Debbie Lawlor of Bristol University, UK. They say it gives an accurate and assessment of likely outcomes.
About a quarter of IVF cycles lead to a live birth. The researchers used figures on 144,018 of these cycles, from the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority.
The resulting statistical model includes maternal age, previous IVF attempts, and use of the woman’s own eggs or donor eggs.
It shows that success is increased for younger women, use of donor eggs, a previous IVF live birth, and the use of intracytoplasmic sperm injection (a single sperm injected directly into an egg).
It also demonstrated a higher chance of preterm and low birthweight when intracytoplasmic sperm injection was not used. Full details are published in PLoS Medicine.
They authors write: "The extent to which baseline couple characteristics affect the probability of live birth and adverse perinatal outcomes after assisted conception is unknown."
With their model, prediction of live birth was "markedly improved", compared with the established model. But they add that the model needs to be validated with more databases before it should be used to guide clinical decisions outside the UK.
They conclude: "Pending external validation, our results show that couple- and treatment-specific factors can be used to provide infertile couples with an accurate assessment of whether they have low or high risk of a successful outcome following IVF."
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