Ubble trouble for some from death forecast

Thursday June 4th, 2015

A new risk of death prediction system for middle-aged people has 80% accuracy, researchers reported today.

The "Ubble" prediction system was developed by Swedish academics using details of half a million people in the UK Biobank.

It offers predictions of the risk of dying within five years for people aged between 40 and 70.

Participants have to answer about 12 questions about their own view of their health, their walking speed and how many cars they own. But it does not ask about weight.

This gives the participant their health "age" - the average age of people with the same risk as them.

The system was tested on 35,000 volunteers in two Scottish centres, the researchers report in The Lancet today.

Developers say it can help doctors quickly identify high risk individuals - and also to persuade them to make lifestyle improvements.

Developer Dr Andrea Ganna, from the Karolinska Institutet, Sweden, said: “The fact that the score can be measured online in a brief questionnaire, without any need for lab tests or physical examination, is an exciting development.

"We hope that our score might eventually enable doctors to quickly and easily identify their highest risk patients, although more research will be needed to determine whether it can be used in this way in a clinical setting."

Writing in the journal, Simon Thompson and Peter Willeit, from the University of Cambridge, say the risk over five years is easier to predict than life expectancy.

They write: "Whether this will help individuals improve self-awareness of their health status, however, or only lead to so-called cyberchondria, is a moot point."

5 year mortality predictors in 498103 UK Biobank participants: a prospective population-based study. Andrea Ganna, Erik Ingelsson. Lancet 4 June 2015. [abstract]

Tags: Elderly Health | Europe | General Health | UK News

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