Dengue fever risk predicted for Brazil’s World Cup
Monday May 19th, 2014
An early warning system that predicts the risk of dengue infections for the 553 micro-regions of Brazil during the football World Cup has been developed for the first time.
The
research, undertaken by Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences in Barcelona,
Spain, has shown that there will be little risk of dengue outbreaks during
the forthcoming World Cup period in the southern and central capitals
of Brasília, Cuiabá, Curitiba, Porto Alegre, and São
Paulo.
However, there is some chance of dengue risk exceeding medium levels in Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte, Salvador and Manaus. The three cities with the highest risk are Natal, Fortaleza, and Recife, although the risk still remains relatively low.
“Recent concerns about dengue fever in Brazil during the World Cup have made dramatic headlines, but these estimates have been based solely on averages of past dengue cases,” said lead author Rachel Lowe, of the Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences.
She said the possibility of a large dengue fever outbreak during the World Cup, capable of infecting visitors and spreading dengue back to their country of origin, depends on a combination of many factors, including large numbers of mosquitoes, a susceptible population, and a high rate of mosquito-human contact.
Climate has an important effect on dengue transmission in epidemic-prone areas and the risk of an epidemic increases shortly after a season of heavy rainfall.
“Our aim was to take the available evidence on real-time seasonal rainfall and temperature forecasts, transmission dynamics, and social and environmental variables (e.g., urbanisation), and combine it with the latest in mapping and mathematical modelling to produce robust risk estimates for the 12 host cities where matches will be played,” says Dr Lowe, whose study is published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases.
She said being able to provide early warnings of dengue epidemics at the micro-region level, three months in advance, was invaluable for reducing or containing an epidemic because it “will give local authorities the time to combat mosquito populations in those cities with a greater chance of dengue outbreaks”.
There are no licensed vaccines or treatments against dengue. Brazil has recorded more cases of dengue fever than anywhere else in the world, with more than 7 million cases reported between 2000 and 2013.
Lowe R, Barcellos C et al. Dengue outlook for the World Cup in Brazil: an early warning model framework driven by real-time seasonal climate forecasts. The Lancet Infectious Diseases. 17 May 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(14)70781-9 [abstract]
Tags: Europe | Fitness | Flu & Viruses | South America | World Health
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