Cancer rates overall may fall – with the exception of rising lung cancer in women, according to new forecasts.
A report, published in Annals of Oncology, estimated cancer mortality figures for the 27 EU countries and the UK with a special focus on mortality from lung cancer.
Professor Eva Negri of the University of Bologna in Italy and colleagues used cancer deaths and population databases from the World Health Organization and Eurostat.
Figures were available for the period 1970 to 2018, and the authors predicted death numbers and rates up to the present year.
Overall there was likely to have been a 6.5% fall in men and 3.7% fall in women in total cancer mortality from 2018 to 2023.
The authors believe that nearly 5.9 million cancer deaths were avoided from 1989 to 2023, compared to the previous rate in 1989.
Regarding lung cancer, female deaths tended to level off rather than decrease. Looking at the different age groups, mortality declined in young and middle aged women, but increased by 10% in women aged 65 or above.
For other cancers, they predict 1,261,990 cancer deaths for 2023. This equates to 123.8 per 100,000 men – down by 6.5% since 2018 – and 79.3 deaths per 100,000 women – down by 3.7%.
“Most cancers displayed favourable predicted rates,” the authors write, “with the exceptions of pancreatic cancer, which was stable in EU men and rose by 3.4% in women, and female lung cancer.”
These figures do not take the COVID pandemic into account. The authors write: “The COVID-19 pandemic may have an effect on cancer mortality in 2023 as a result of delayed visits and procedures, influencing both secondary prevention and treatment, and disease management for cancer.”
Malvezzi, M. et al. European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2023 with focus on lung cancer. Annals of Oncology 5 March 2023; doi: 10.1016/j.annonc.2023.01.010
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