The UK will see more than half a million people diagnosed with cancer every year by 2040 – an increase of one third from today, according to an analysis published today.
A report by Cancer Research UK *Cancer in the UK: Overview 2023*, which is published today ahead of World Cancer Day tomorrow, says if current trends continue, cancer cases will rise from the 384,000 diagnosed per year now, to 506,000 in 2040.
It estimates there will be 208,000 cancer deaths in the UK each year – an increase of almost a quarter from the 167,000 seen now, and warns there could be 8.4 million new cases of cancer and 3.5 million cancer deaths in the UK between 2023 and 2040.
The majority of these cases and deaths will be in people aged 70 and over, at 60% of cases and 76% of deaths, says the charity.
While survival has improved for many cancer types, the average age of cancer patients will have risen by 2040, with six in 10 cases in individuals aged 70 and over, up from about five in 10 now.
The charity says this means there will be more people with a higher risk of developing cancer, more survivors needing follow-up care and more patients with complex needs.
It also warns that UK cancer survival rates are behind comparable countries, adding the NHS is not on track to achieve its ambition of diagnosing 75% of cancers at stage 1 or 2 by 2028.
It adds the government’s Major Conditions Strategy is unlikely to provide the roadmap required to achieve this goal and equip the NHS for the challenges ahead.
Cancer Research UK’s chief executive, Michelle Mitchell, said: “Today’s analysis provides a stark reminder of the challenges the NHS in England is set to face in years to come. Cancer patients are already facing unacceptably long waits for diagnosis and treatment, and staff in cancer services are working very hard.
“On World Cancer Day, we are demanding that the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, provide long-term, lasting solutions to ensure cancer survival dramatically improves in England. A 10-year cancer plan that will prepare cancer services for the future, give people affected by cancer the care they deserve and the resources – people and equipment – the NHS needs, is essential.”
It urged the government to take immediate action to ensure more cancers are prevented, to diagnose and treat cancers faster, invest in research and innovation, and address the chronic staff and equipment shortages within the NHS.
A recent report from NHS Digital found one in 10 posts in the NHS in England are vacant, with 133,446 vacancies in total.
A YouGov poll for Cancer Research UK also showed that 79% of UK adults do not think the NHS has enough staff or equipment to tackle cancer.
Professor Charles Swanton, Cancer Research UK’s chief clinician, said: “Right now, the NHS is just about treading water. By the end of the next decade, if left unaided, the NHS risks being overwhelmed by the sheer volume of new cancer diagnoses. It takes 15 years to train an oncologist, pathologist, radiologist or surgeon. The Government must start planning now to give patients the support they will so desperately need.
“I’m hopeful that through investment and reform in the health service and advancements in research, future numbers of cancer cases might not be as high as these projections warn. But if the Government doesn’t act now to prepare for this demand, there’s a risk that our hard-fought progress in cancer survival could go into reverse.”
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