Several countries could experience lower life expectancy in 2040 than today, according to a new global analysis published today.
The forecasts were carried out by Dr Kyle Foreman of the University of Washington, USA, and colleagues.
They used figures from the international Global Burden of Disease study to develop a range of best or worst-case scenarios for life expectancy, as well as mortality from 250 causes of death, for 195 countries.
The study suggests that in a worst case situation, half the countries could experience declines in life expectancy – while it is possible that all countries could see improvements.
It predicts improvements in life expectancy in the UK by about three years – even though progress has currently stalled. In contrast, the study suggests, the USA will only see modest improvements.
The work considered information on fertility, per capita income, and years of education, along with 79 health risk factors.
The team found that, in 2016, four of the top ten causes of early death were non-communicable diseases or injuries, but this may rise to eight by 2040. They are likely to be: ischemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic kidney disease, Alzheimer’s disease, diabetes, road injuries, and lung cancer.
Dr Foreman says: "The study is unprecedented in scope – and provides more robust statistical modelling and more comprehensive and detailed estimates of risk factors and diseases than previous forecasts from the United Nations and other population studies institutes."
It is published in The Lancet today (17 October). China’s life expectancy is expected to rise by 5.6 years, whereas life expectancy in the United States is predicted to rise by only 1.1 years.
The UK’s average lifespan in 2016 was 80.8 years – and is expected to increase to 83.3 by 2040.
Despite the predicted global rise in deaths from non-communicable diseases, the authors believe that there is "great potential to alter the downward trajectory of health" by addressing key risk factors, levels of education, and income levels.
Foreman, K. et al. Forecasting life expectancy, years of life lost, and all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 250 causes of death: reference and alternative scenarios for 2016-40 for 195 countries and territories. The Lancet 17 October 2018
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