GPs could cut antibiotic prescriptions for children by 10% using a new formula designed to identify patients at high risk from respiratory tract infections, researchers say today.
The researchers at Bristol University, UK, say they have identified seven factors that together predict whether a child might need hospital treatment for the infection.
The findings were unveiled in The Lancet Respiratory Medicine.
The researchers analysed the care of more than 8,000 children seen at 247 practices around England.
They tested 50 characteristics, signs and symptoms to find seven that independently predicted the risks faced by the children. These were temperature, age, wheezing, asthma, vomiting, recession and the length of illness.
Researcher Professor Alastair Hay said: "The aim of our study was to develop a simple, usable prediction tool based on symptoms and signs to help GPs and nurses identify children presenting in primary care at the lowest and highest risk of future complications and hospitalisation, so that antibiotics can be targeted accordingly.”
He added: "We hope that our proposed clinical tool might eventually enable doctors to quickly and easily identify their lowest and highest risk patients, although more research will be needed to determine just how effective it is in clinical practice.
"The rule should supplement not replace clinical judgement, and doctors and nurses should still advise parents about the symptoms and signs they should look out for, and when to seek medical help.”
The Royal College of GPs said the findings were "promising."
Chair Dr Maureen Baker added: "Such a test is not going to become widely available overnight and in the meantime we must all continue to work together – not just the healthcare sector – to do what we can to reduce growing global resistance to antibiotics, including making the public realise that antibiotics are not always the answer.
“It is particularly vital that we protect the safety of our young patients by ensuring that they don’t start building up a resistance to antibiotics early on in their life, so that antibiotics remain effective in the future when they might really need them."
Lancet Respiratory Medicine 2 September 2016 [abstract]
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