Scientists may soon be able to use genetics to predict which strain of flu will affect populations in any given year.
Joshua Plotkin and Sergey Kryazhimskiy, who carried out the research with colleagues at McMaster University, Canada, and the Institute for Information Transmission Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences, undertook a computational study of 40 years’ flu genomes and mutations.
By cataloguing pairs of genetic changes that have occurred in rapid succession, they saw a mutation in one half of the pair can act as an early warning sign of a mutation about to occur in the other.
Writing in the Public Library of Science journal Genetics, Mr Plotkin said the finding could have major implications for global public health preparedness.
Tracking mutations in isolation is not good enough, he warned.
“Sometimes a mutation is functional or adaptive only if it’s in the context of a certain genetic background – that is, if the protein already has some other mutation,” Mr Plotkin explained.
“If you see a mutation occur in Site A and then very soon after you see a mutation in Site B, and this pattern happens repeatedly, then you have some evidence that A and B influence fitness epistatically.
“The first mutation might be useless on its own, but it might be a prerequisite for the second mutation to be useful. The first mutation is like giving you a nail, and the second one is like giving you a hammer.”
Being able to predict which mutations could occur has lifesaving applications. Hundreds of thousands people die worldwide every year because of seasonal flu complications.
Mr Plotkin said flu vaccine production is labour intensive and public health bodies have to make an educated guess as to which strain is likely to be the most active several months in advance.
This study may help to take out the guesswork so that public health workers can more accurately prepare for flu outbreaks.
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