Second flu wave warning
Friday September 4th, 2009
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| Liam Donaldson - Chief Medical Officer |
Britain's chief medical officer issued fresh warnings against complacency yesterday as scientists suggested swine flu may drive out other forms of the disease.
The spread of the new H1N1 virus has slowed down in Britain - with just 4,500 cases reported last week, the last of the school summer holidays.
It is also petering out in southern countries as the southern hemisphere emerges from its flu season.
UK chief medical officer Professor Sir Liam Donaldson (pictured) told reporters that worst case scenarios have been revised down dramatically for Britain. In the worst case there would be 19,000 deaths - it was previously 65,000 although health officials had always stressed this was unlikely to happen.
The new scenario would compare with the last British flu epidemic in 1999.
So far some 70 deaths in the UK have been linked to the virus.
The World Health Organisation has also warned the northern hemisphere to prepare for a "second wave". And it says the virus may continue to spread in tropical countries.
And US researchers have suggested that H1N1 could drive out seasonal flu.
Laboratory studies at the University of Maryland, could find no evidence that H1N1 has a tendency to combine with other seasonal viruses to become more dangerous.
And they confirmed that it transmits more easily between animals than other viruses.
They said it would "probably predominate" in the coming flu season. And they warned that it can lodge itself in the lungs, while normal flu may not. H1N1 has been linked to pneumonia.
Dr Anthony Fauci, director of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said: "The results suggest that 2009 H1N1 influenza may outcompete seasonal flu virus strains and may be more communicable as well.
These new data, while preliminary, underscore the need for vaccinating against both seasonal influenza and the 2009 H1N1 influenza this fall (autumn) and winter."
Researcher Dr Daniel Perez, who conducted the research on ferrets, said: "The H1N1 pandemic virus has a clear biological advantage over the two main seasonal flu strains and all the makings of a virus fully adapted to humans."
The findings are reported by the on-line journal PLoS Currents: Influenza.
The findings are confirmed by the latest World Health Organisation analysis. WHO says H1N1 is now dominant and can cause severe lung infection.
Meanwhile researchers at Leicester University, UK, reported that one dose of a new swine flu vaccine can trigger a strong immune response.
Some 100 volunteers, aged between 18 and 50, have tried out the new vaccine, the MF59-adjuvanted A(H1N1) vaccine.
Researcher Dr Iain Stephenson said: "The results suggest that one vaccine dose may be sufficient to protect against the A(H1N1) swine flu, rather than two.
"Larger trials are already under way around the world. Timings on when the vaccine will be available to governments will depend on the results of these clinical trials, and approvals by regulatory authorities."
In Britain, plans for vaccination continue to cause controversy.
Chemist+Druggist magazine says at least one region of England, the north west, plans to exclude pharmacists from vaccination as does Stoke on Trent.
Department of health director of immunisation Professor David Salisbury told the magazine that pharmacists were not excluded by government guidelines.
He said: "I'm sure there are some pharmacists who have clinical contact that puts them at equal risk with other groups."
Tags: Flu & Viruses | North America | Respiratory | Traveller Health | World Health
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