Don't underestimate swine flu - experts

Wednesday July 15th, 2009

The world should not underestimate the severity of swine flu, British experts warned today.

Figures suggesting that H1N1 flu is "relatively mild" may not tell the whole story, according to the experts from Imperial College, London.

They put the overall death rate at half of one per cent, similar to the rates for seasonal flu.

But countries have seen big variations and most victims have been much younger than is normally the case during the flu season, they write in an article for the British Medical Journal.

The researchers, led by Dr Tini Garske and Professor Azra Ghani, say death rates for flu are generally underestimated because it contributes to deaths from causes such as heart disease and stroke.

They call for a new approach to "ensure that any changes in the virulence of the virus are rapidly detected so that mitigation policies are applied appropriately."

Dr Garske, a Medical Research Council researcher, said: "Accurately predicting the severity of this swine flu pandemic is a very tricky business, and our research shows that this can only be achieved if data is collected according to well designed study protocols and analysed in a more sophisticated way than is frequently being performed at present.

"If we fail to get an accurate prediction of severity, we will not be providing healthcare planners, doctors and nurses, with the information that they need to ensure they are best prepared to fight the pandemic as we head into the flu season this autumn."

British Medical Journal on-line July 15th 2009

Tags: Flu & Viruses | Traveller Health | UK News | World Health

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