Paradox of UK swine flu deaths
Friday December 11th, 2009
Swine flu has not proved as lethal as feared - but it has still killed substantial numbers of otherwise healthy people, according to Britain's chief medical officer.
In England, UK, this year the virus has killed 26 people for every 100,000 cases, according to an analysis published last night.
The findings come from an analysis of all 138 confirmed swine flu deaths in England between June and November 2009.
Reported
by the British Medical Journal, it shows that 38 per cent of deaths occurred
in people who had not been designated as being at high risk, most of whom
would not be in the present vaccination programme.
Some two thirds of those who died came from the groups now being offered the new vaccine against swine flu, according to the research by chief medical officer Professor Sir Liam Donaldson.
Although people over the age of 65 proved able to resist the virus, those who succumbed faced a much greater risk of dying than others - with about one per cent of victims dying, analysts found.
During the Spanish flu of 1918, two per cent of patients died and in major flu epidemics in 1957 and 1967 two in every thousand victims died.
Sir Liam writes: "Improvements in nutritional status, housing and health care availability might explain some of the apparent decrease in case fatality from one pandemic to the next.
"Since the most recent pandemic there have been major advances in intensive care medicine. Many more patients may have died in England without the ready availability of critical care support, including mechanical ventilation."
Just 26 of those who died had received antiviral medicine with 48 hours of contracting the illness. Another 82 received drug treatment later.
Sir Liam argues that this finding justifies the British policy of giving Tamiflu to otherwise healthy patients - this was challenged by a group of experts earlier this week.
He writes: "This reinforces that where countermeasures (antivirals, vaccines) are available, they should be actively deployed. A lower population impact than previous pandemics is not a justification for public health inaction when death, serious illness, and admission to hospital can be prevented."
* Latest figures show a dramatic decline in swine flu rates in England. According to the Health Protection Agency, just 11,000 new cases were diagnosed last week, about a sixth of the numbers at the peak of the outbreak.
A total of 191 people have now died after contracting the virus in England.
British Medical Journal December 10 2009
Tags: Flu & Viruses | UK News
Printer friendly page